Global FPD Industry 2003 Executive Summary

The global flat panel display (FPD) industry is evolving at an extraordinary pace that shows no signs of slowing. To stay on top of this rapid rate of evolution, participants and observers must have a clear understanding of all FPD-related products, technologies, markets, materials, manufacturing techniques and applications. In response to this need, and in keeping with its mission to help drive FPD fabrication improvements as well as new technology developments, the U. S. Display Consortium (USDC) has compiled the aptly named Global FPD Industry 2003: An In-depth Overview and Roadmap.

This brief summary captures some of the key technology issues and market-status details covered in the USDC report-starting with some current prevailing theories.

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LCD Technology Improvements Characterized by Market "Laws"

Japanese display experts have proposed FPD-oriented equivalents of the well-established Moore's Law for the chip sector. Each of these new laws spans three years and is focused on a slightly different aspect of FPD manufacturing. The first, Nishimura's Law, states that the size of substrate used grows by a factor of 1.8 every 3 years, i.e., it doubles every 3.6 years-less than half the time IC wafers take to double in size (7.5 years). Continued growth will drive further reductions in the cost of large displays for computer monitors, home theater sand information displays.

Kitihara's Law describes the evolution of FPD panels-in each three-year cycle, the average screen area grows 44 percent, while the power consumption required for a given function decreases by 44 percent and panel thickness and weight is reduced by one-third. The law further estimates that the number of bits needed to specify the image on the screen has increased fourfold every cycle, matching Moore's Law for ICs. Continuation of these trends may require alternative technologies or new materials.

Finally, Odawara's Law centers on panel prices, stating that each doubling in the cumulative area of flat panels produced results in a cost reduction of 22 to 23 percent. The anticipated production of 100 million m2 of active-matrix LCDs (AMLCDs) by 2010 should lead to prices of about 23 Yen per cm2, or $1.25 per in2, for large panels. 30-inch LCD TVs should be available for around $500 and 40-inch at below $1000. The cost of a full-color AMLCD cell-phone display, however, is expected to remain about six times higher would be expected by applying this theory. This creates a market-entry opportunity for AMLCDs made with polysilicon thin-film transistors (p-Si TFTs), as well as for newer technologies like organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and electronic paper.

Innovations in LCD Technology

AMLCD manufacturers are eager to capture the market for large-screen televisions and home theaters. Traditional LCDs, such as those used in notebook computers, cannot provide the requisite response speed, color saturation and image quality for off-axis viewing. However, new designs and advanced materials have shortened the response time of prototype displays to below 5ms. Modes such as in-plane switching (IPS) provide off-axis viewing adequate for many applications. LED backlights should help improve the color gamut.

For hand-held applications reflective modes lead to minimal power consumption, but auxiliary lighting is needed for use under poor lighting conditions. Improvements in micro-machining have made it possible to divide each sub-pixel into reflective and transmissive regions.

Plasma Display Panel Market Growth is Uncertain

Plasma discharge panel (PDP) technology is the only large-area emissive FPD approach that has enjoyed market success to date. Initial progress in providing information displays at trade shows and other public settings has led manufacturers to believe that PDPs can capture the consumer markets for large TVs and home theaters. However, before PDPs can achieve widespread consumer use, manufacturing costs and channel mark-ups must be substantially reduced, and technical improvements are needed to overcome deficiencies, such as image burn-in. Competition from LCDs and projection systems based on Digital Micromirror Devices (DMDs) will be fierce.

Emerging Technologies on the Rise

OLEDs offer the greatest promise for twenty-first-century applications due to their solid-state construction, very thin profile, near-instantaneous response, and wide range of viewing angles. New processing techniques, essential to the development of OLEDs, electronic paper and field-emission displays (FEDs), offer exciting possibilities-substantial progress has already been achieved in inkjet printing and laser-induced transfer processes. The high-quality prototype panels produced by Asian LCD manufacturers offer every indication that OLED technology development will enjoy commercial success.

Other, more dramatic ways to provide product differentiation are also on the horizon. Among these are three-dimensional displays and flexible substrates. Manufacturing on flexible substrates is key to the success of the several electronic-paper solutions being explored. While less sensitive to oxygen and water than OLEDs, these substrates face a major hurdle in coming to market fruition-namely, the development of suitable electronic backplanes, particularly for technologies that require active-matrix drives.

To date, no form factor for 3-D displays has been found that a wide range of viewers would find acceptable. Both stereoscopic and auto-stereoscopic systems have been explored, but neither is both easy to produce and low in cost. True 3-D systems replace pixels with their 3-D counterparts, known as voxels, but high resolution is difficult to achieve. Other approaches are being explored, including commercial versions of high-resolution 3-D holographic systems.

The USDC report provides a thorough analysis of the two major challenges that must be resolved for OLED, as well as these other alternative display technologies, to become commercially viable: matching their advantages to specific market opportunities, and developing manufacturing processes and equipment whose efficiency and costs are par with those of LCDs.

The full report provides a comprehensive overview of the FPD industry market and expected trends; for a chapter-level table of contents, please click here to see a sample of what "The Global FPD Industry 2003 has in store for your company!

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